MilanSturgis

Radio Taliban Calling

milansturgis — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 10:00:49 +0000

There are two battles going on in the tribal areas in Pakistan, one on the battlefield and one on the airwaves. The battle on the battlefield has immediate impact and the one on the airwaves has a lasting affect on the population. The so called “FM Mullah” , the mobile pirate radio stations that broadcast in the tribal areas everything from threats to those who cooperate with the Pakistani authorities and Coalition Forces-so called electronic “night letters” to Islamic teachings for woman who generally do not go to mosque have proliferated in recent months. Additionally this information operations campaign has the ability to counter the programs of the Pakistani government as they target local audiences with arguments that resonant with the population rather than national campaigns by the Pakistani government which have trouble finding a local audience. The battlefield on the ground has yielded small but steady successes as the government have slowly moved from Swat to Dir and now to Banjur as they target Taliban strongholds. The battlefield of the airwaves has been a different situation with the Taliban clearly winning the information war by targeting the isolated areas that the government has ignoreed for years and now are paying a price for their lack of attention. This does not mean that this is hopeless cause for Islamabad but it does mean that a new concerted effort is needed to target this population in order to inform them that their future does not belong to those who simply wish to use them in their drive for immediate political control but in the government that can and must provide for their security and future in a united Pakistan .

Can we bring the taliban home?

milansturgis — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 10:06:51 +0000

There has been considerable effort spent on the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan with the majority of that effort concentrating on the tactics rather than the strategy. The strategy of their defeat in fact goes far beyond the battlefield and moves on to the parliament and the halls of government in Kabul. To truly undermine the Taliban and put an end to the insurgency there must be a plan to re-integrate them back into society-in fact a campaign for them to “come home”. As long as they are seen as outsiders who do not have place in a post-insurgency Afghanistan they have no reason to bargain in laying down their arms. As long as they are considered “outsiders’ to Afghanistan by the Afghan government and Coalition Forces and its future we have set the frontier of engagement outside of Afghan society. This blog has previously argued that there are Taliban (with a capital T) and taliban (with a lower case t) with Taliban the likes of Mulluh Omar an taliban as local tribal leaders as long as we refuse to recognize the ability to reconcile the taliban who have no aspirations toward global jihad the enemy will not be peeled away from the population. The fight today cannot be against every enemy of the present Karazai government, we must realize the importance of a divergence of voices and yes sometimes in Afghanistan this degenerates into gunfire but that doesn’t always translate into an active insurgency. The process of reconciliation with taliban leaders must be the next step as we move forward to make them a shareholder of Afghanistan today rather than an Afghanistan that never existed only and who choose to destroy with no intention of rebuilding.

Iran’s Instability makes a Regional Trifectra

milansturgis — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 10:04:31 +0000

As late as two weeks ago the US had come to the decision that Iran had a significant role to play in Afghanistan not only as a neighbor but as an emerging regional power. There were those, including this blog, which maintained that it was past US policy missteps that facilitated in Iran claiming their new found power in the region. What a difference a week a make. The political instability in Iran today demonstrates that the political maturity that we once thought Iran possessed was a thin veneer which the post-electoral events have stripped away laying bare a fragile ruling elite which fears it’s own population. In the west of Afghanistan Iran has embarked on a massive infrastructure building process to include roads, schools, clinics and other symbols of goodwill and friendship. In fact, the roads that they had built dwarfed the projects funded by the US in the eastern part of the country and threatened the perception of our commitment by the average Afghan. The events of the past week however have demonstrated the fragility of Iran’s government and their inability to meet the basic needs of its own people let alone trying to meet the needs of its neighbors such as Afghanistan. Iran now joins the unlikely club of Afghanistan and Pakistan of fragile states in the region and will inevitably step back from its adventuresome foray into regional hegemony in regards to its involvement in Afghanistan. Today the US has an opportunity to fill that gap in western Afghanistan by positively engaging the provinces of Herat, Helmand Farah and other areas which Iran took great pride in engaging until its own streets had caught fire with the demands of openness from its own population.

Enemy at the Gates

milansturgis — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 11:13:03 +0000

Yesterday the seemingly impregnable Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan was rocketed with two US military deaths and six injured-two of who were civilians. This points to an ominous corner we turned in the war in Afghanistan as this attack was more than one on a base-it was an attack on the our sense of safety. Bagram with its Burger King, Pizza Hut an numerous gyms has all the trappings and feel of a large base in the US. In fact it was often described as “no different than a Ft. Campbell or a Ft. Bragg with dust storms.” Yesterday’s attack is a wake up to the reality of what we face with an emboldened enemy. Our thinking has always been there are forward operating bases on the front lines and then there are places like Bagram where the threat is low if any at all. Much like the heinous attacks of 9/11 shook up (at least for a time) the US public causing us to realize we all are on the front line when it comes to terrorists attacks-the events at Bagram yesterday teaches us that all of our assets on the ground are in harm’s way. The renewed effort in Afghanistan which is the cornerstone of the White House’s new strategy will change the nature of this war and the way we perceive it. As we push into long held Taliban areas the level of violence will no doubt escalate both on the battlefield and in the cities of Afghanistan. It follows that this escalation will lead to more deaths both with Coalition Forces and Afghan civilians. And yes, even the Pizza Hut on Bagram will be stripped of its once seemingly cloak of safety as we head into these unchartered waters.

Petro-Islam and the Disconnect with Afghanistan

milansturgis — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 09:45:28 +0000

FROM DUBAI

If there are still those who believe that Islam is a unifying factor in this region I invite them to take the 2 1/2 hour flight from Kabul to Dubai. Though both cultures are majority Sunni and both claim to be ultra religious, it is as if you traveled from one universe to another. In leaving Kabul on a Friday the streets are empty except for the hub of activity around the city’s mosques. The choking traffic jams are a memory from the day before-most people setting Friday aside for their faith. The flight from Kabul is filled with a curious selection of internationals, Gulf developers and a smattering of local Afghans to include a young women experiencing her terrifying first flight from her home. Landing in Dubai you are still in the Muslim world but it bears no resemblance to the world you left behind in Kabul. The streets of Dubai are clogged with ex-pats and locals driving vehicles that would make Fairfield County, Connecticut blush. Though you see crowds moving near mosques they don’t outnumber the ones moving about the nearby shopping malls and Crispy Cream Doughnuts shops. The Dubai Car Show is in full swing this weekend with the opulence that you would expect with seemingly unlimited cash and frontiers that do not include the poor. This petro-Islamof Dubai has no resemblance to the faith that has kept Afghans alive for more years than one would want to count. This blog has advocated that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states should take a more active role in Afghanistan’s future and I still believe this-but as turbo-arabia blares from Dubai radio the call to prayer from Kabul seems to be drowned out.

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milansturgis — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 09:36:13 +0000

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